(PJ Media) As the 2024 election cycle intensifies, political analysts are scrutinizing every detail to forecast the potential outcome. In the latest edition of “Atlas Deep Dive,” Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, and Pedro Azevedo, the chief specialist for U.S. elections, provided insightful analysis on the current state of the race.
AtlasIntel, in case you don’t know, was the most accurate pollster during the 2020 election. So its polling and insight are actually important. Its latest survey gave Trump a 2.9-point lead over Kamala Harris nationally — which would translate to a significant Electoral College victory.
So what do they say about the state of the race right now?
Roman asked Azevedo for his qualitative take, beyond the numbers, on the chances each candidate has. Azevedo’s response was cautious.
“I would say my intuition was that we would see the polls at least narrow a little bit during this month with the enthusiasm for Kamala and how things have been going for her,” he explained. Azevedo estimated a 60-40 chance for Kamala Harris, with the expectation that a positive debate performance could give her a boost. “If after this debate, which she did so well and which everyone agrees that she won… she can get some momentum going.”
However, Roman, whose analysis is deeply rooted in numerical data, presented a more conservative outlook. He stated, “Well, I’m very much oriented by the numbers we have,” he said. “And I believe in those numbers. And if I believe in those numbers and I think about how this plays out, you know, swing state by swing state — and that is something that we’ll be releasing next week — I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%.”
