(Gallup) Fifty-seven percent of Americans say they are very or somewhat confident that the votes for president this year will be accurately cast and counted. That aligns with how Americans have viewed the election results most years since 2008. However, it masks Democrats becoming more confident in the process and Republicans becoming less so. This has led to a record-high 56-percentage-point partisan gap, with 84% of Democrats versus 28% of Republicans having faith in the accuracy of the vote.
Confidence Nationally Has Varied Little Since 2008, Still Exceeds 50%
After registering 72% in Gallup’s initial reading on this metric in 2004, the percentage of Americans believing that the votes for president will be accurately cast and counted across the country fell to 59% in 2008. It has since hovered near 60%, including a 66% reading in 2016 and 59% in 2020.
At the same time, the percentage of Americans saying they are “not at all confident” in the vote has steadily climbed from 6% in 2004 to 19% today.
Faith in Elections Buoyed by Democrats, Wanes Among GOP
Republicans’ faith in the accuracy of the election results nationwide has sunk 16 points since the 2020 election, now registering 28%. This follows an 11-point decline to 44% in 2020 from 55% in 2016, the last time a majority of Republicans were confident.
Democrats’ confidence in the reliability of the presidential vote increased sharply between 2008 and 2016, from 57% to 85%, and has since remained high. More than half of independents have also consistently seen it as accurate.
In 2004, when George W. Bush was in office, Republicans were more confident than Democrats, possibly a holdover from the 2000 election when Democratic candidate Al Gore lost following a disputed vote count in Florida. Four years later, with Bush still president but the 2008 election underway between Barack Obama and John McCain, GOP confidence fell to match that of Democrats. Republican confidence in the presidential vote was unchanged when next measured in 2016, before experiencing the recent sharp declines.
