(RedState) There’s a trend growing in the commonwealth of Virginia that indicates the Old Dominion might actually be in play for Donald Trump, which is very bad news indeed for Kamala Harris and the Democrat Party. If Democrats aren’t screaming “Assume crash positions!” right about now, they might want to think about starting.
Early voting in Virginia, which Democrats tends to dominate, began back on September 25, and Republicans seem to be turning out in far greater numbers than expected. As of Monday, October 14, 2024, the early voting/absentee ballot numbers looked something like this:
Yes, Democrats still hold the advantage of total votes cast thus far, but Republican voters, who are known to shy away from early voting in favor of voting in person on Election Day, are closing the traditional gap in a big, big way. Experts would expect to see Democrats have around a 30 percent advantage at this point, but they only hold an 11.3 percent lead.
Virginia Voted Early or Absentee as of 10/14/24
693,662 Dem 52.8% /NP 5.63%/ Rep 41.5%
18-29 6.30 % / 30-39 6.05% / 40-49 8.11% / 50-64 25.8% /65+53.7%*VA is a MODELED PARTY AFFILIATION STATE – Follow L2-data for Non Partisan Early Return Information https://t.co/BjqITtVAHZ pic.twitter.com/Jrjqax04hC
— L2 Data (@L2political) October 14, 2024
The experts, of course, could be wrong, but here’s how things stood on November 1, 2020, after all early voting had ended.
For those keeping score at home, that’s a 33 percent Dem advantage back in 2020, as opposed to 11.3 percent in 2024.
One observer who’s been keeping tabs on early voting in Virginia tweeted this out Monday afternoon:
Well, well, well.
Virginia wasn’t even remotely considered to be in play for Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in 2020 in a 54.1 percent to 44 percent split. Just a week ago, polling out of Christopher Newport University (CNU) had Kamala Harris holding onto Biden’s 2020 margin, even widening it a little bit. The candidates themselves aren’t campaigning in the former swing state since it looked like an impossibility for Trump to win there.
At the same time, one big clue was dropped by the Democrats that they were worried that Virginia is not locked up for them: The Biden-Harris Department of Justice filed a lawsuit Friday against Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin for removing illegals from the commonwealth’s voting rolls. Youngkin issued an executive order back in August that removedthousands of non-citizens from the rolls. The Biden-Harris DOJ had nothing to say at the time, but something must have them spooked.
