(Daily Caller) While most Americans are focused on the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, both major parties are eyeing key Senate and House races to see who will control the legislative branches of government.
There are several competitive down-ballot races in 2024, but these twelve are the most important to watch on Election Day.
The Senate is currently under Democratic control, but polling shows Republicans can take over if they win seats in Montana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. The election prediction model from 538 shows Republicans winning control of the Senate in 916 out of 1,000 election simulations at the time of writing. Republicans only need to pick up three out of the five seats to flip the majority.
There’s now an 84% chance Republicans win back control of the Senate. pic.twitter.com/0lSU4H0btC
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 24, 2024
Montana:
Montana looks to be the most straightforward pick-up for Republicans. Three-term Democrat Montana Sen. Jon Tester is fighting off a formidable opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy. Montana is a deep-red state, and most polls show Sheehy has the advantage of beating Tester. Democrats and their friends in the corporate media have spent considerable time trying to help Tester over the line. Polling shows that Sheehy is leading Tester by 4 points, however, placing his numbers outside the Emerson College polling’s margin of error.
The latest polls show Tim Sheehy leading against incumbent Sen Jon Tester. Republicans can capture control of the US Senate if we win this race. Let’s go Montana!
pic.twitter.com/xhgOctUQ93— Garbage Chad Prather (@WatchChad) September 14, 2024
West Virginia:
Democrat candidate Glenn Elliott, a former two-time Mayor, and Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice are fighting for the state’s open Senate seat. Justice is very popular in the state and is favored to win the seat. The 538 election simulator foundJustice with a 99% chance to win. The most recent polling from August shows Justice polling at 62% and Elliot at just 28%.
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania will be a harder pick-up for Republicans, and if Democrats lose, it will arguably be the biggest upset. Incumbent Democrat Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey and Republican candidate Dave McCormick are battling for the seat. Despite the 538 election simulator showing Casey beating McCormick 71 out of 100 times, his campaign has seemed nervous he’ll be able to win. In recent weeks, Casey has distanced himself from the Biden/Harris administration by running ads agreeing with Trump’s policies on the economy and immigration. After positive October polling, which gave McCormick a slight lead, November polling shows Casey has just a 2-point lead over McCormick heading into Election Day.
🚨 BREAKING: A new poll by Atlas Intel shows @DaveMcCormickPA in the lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
🔴 Dave McCormick 48.3% (+1.2)
🔵 Bob Casey 47.1%(Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in 2020) pic.twitter.com/YB6ZsqOMxI
— Kyle Martinsen (@KyleMartinsen_) October 19, 2024
