(Quinnipiac) As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, Trump has a slight lead over Biden 49 – 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. This is a small change from Quinnipiac University’s May 22 poll when the race was too close to call with Biden receiving 48 percent support and Trump receiving 47 percent support.
In today’s poll, Republicans (93 – 4 percent) and independents (51 – 41 percent) back Trump, while Democrats (94 – 4 percent) back Biden.
In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates, Trump leads with 43 percent support, Biden receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 11 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support.
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
More than 7 in 10 voters (73 percent) think it is likely that they will watch the televised debate between Biden and Trump on Thursday, while 25 percent of voters think it is unlikely that they will watch the debate.
When voters who chose a candidate were asked whether they would be open to the possibility of changing their choice for president based on the debate performances, 16 percent say they are open to the possibility, while 82 percent say they are not open to the possibility.
Thirteen percent of voters supporting Biden, 12 percent of voters supporting Trump, and 32 percent of voters supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. say they are open to the possibility of changing their choice for president based on the debate performances.
THE ISSUES
Voters were asked how important each of eight issues is in their decision of who to support in the election for president…
- preserving democracy in the United States: 51 percent say extremely important, 31 percent say very important, 12 percent say somewhat important, 2 percent say not so important, and 3 percent say not important at all;
- the economy: 45 percent say extremely important, 41 percent say very important, 12 percent say somewhat important, 1 percent say not so important, and 1 percent say not important at all;
- the United States Supreme Court: 38 percent say extremely important, 34 percent say very important, 17 percent say somewhat important, 4 percent say not so important, and 5 percent say not important at all;
- immigration: 35 percent say extremely important, 33 percent say very important, 22 percent say somewhat important, 5 percent say not so important, and 4 percent say not important at all;
- abortion: 29 percent say extremely important, 28 percent say very important, 20 percent say somewhat important, 8 percent say not so important, and 12 percent say not important at all;
- Donald Trump’s felony conviction in New York City: 23 percent say extremely important, 16 percent say very important, 11 percent say somewhat important, 10 percent say not so important, and 38 percent say not important at all;
- climate change: 21 percent say extremely important, 25 percent say very important, 21 percent say somewhat important, 12 percent say not so important, and 20 percent say not important at all;
- the Israel – Hamas war in Gaza: 18 percent say extremely important, 32 percent say very important, 30 percent say somewhat important, 8 percent say not so important, and 9 percent say not important at all.
TRUMP CONVICTION
A majority of voters (55 percent) think Donald Trump should not be sentenced to prison based on the guilty verdict in the New York City criminal trial against him in connection to charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress, while 40 percent think he should be sentenced to prison.
