(Daily Wire) Vice President Kamala Harris, if tradition holds, should be seeing a bump in her poll numbers coming out of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), which will wrap up on Thursday evening as she officially accepts the 2024 presidential nomination from her party. But even as the final hours of the convention tick by, it’s her Republican opponent — former President Donald Trump — who appears to be surging.
According to a report from Fox Business, Trump received a boost on at least two betting sites, surging past Harris on Polymarket and coming up just short of surpassing her on BetUS.
As of Wednesday, Polymarket predicted a 52% chance that Trump would come out ahead in the 2024 presidential election — up six points from the 46% chance they gave him one week prior. Harris’ odds, in the same time period — despite the fact that her convention was in full swing — dropped from 51% to 47%.
On BetUS, Trump was given a 52.38% chance to Harris’ 54.55% — and he appeared to still be making headway.
According to the report, BetUS public relations director Tim Williams had a few ideas as to what might be giving Trump such a boost — from rumors of a potential endorsement from independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the latest jobs numbers.
“My pure speculation might be that the betting public believes that having to revise down payroll growth by 818,000 jobs — that’s 818,000 fewer jobs than reported earlier — could hurt Harris,” he told Fox Business, noting that the Biden-Harris administration had been boasting about creating nearly a million jobs that did not actually exist.
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Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane noted that media scrutiny over Harris’ economic policy proposals — which had been panned by the Right and the Left — could also account for her slipping in the betting markets.
Model update:
Trump 52.5%
Harris 40.3%Still some uncertainty because of RFK decision and time until the election.
Significant market moves in the past week. Likely a combination of:
1. Harris releasing economic policies (unpopular)
2. More Harris media exposure.
3. RFK… pic.twitter.com/x91x6GAeXR— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) August 21, 2024
