(Politico) FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE READING — This polling memo (h/t JMart) from BlueLabs Analytics is circulating among party officials still keen to convince JOE BIDEN to step aside and prevent his party from suffering what many fear will be a historic loss to DONALD TRUMP.
The topline findings from interviews with over 15,000 voters in seven battleground states:
- “Alternative Democratic candidates run ahead of President Biden by an average of three points across the battleground states. Nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President. This includes Vice President [KAMALA] HARRIS who runs better than the President (but behind the average alternative).”
- “Some of the gains are coming from winning undecideds and those previously supporting a third party. However, alternative candidates are also pulling votes from Donald Trump. All candidates continue to hold the Democratic base.”
- “Voters are looking for a fresh face. Those more closely tied to the current administration perform relatively worse than other tested candidates.”
The data here opens a new front in the fight to replace Biden, strongly arguing that the best chance to defeat Trump is with a new Democratic nominee independent of the incumbent administration.
In other words: not Kamala Harris.
The strongest potential candidates are (in alphabetical order) Arizona Sen. MARK KELLY, Maryland Gov. WES MOORE, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO and Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER. All four outpaced Biden “by roughly 5 points across battleground states.”
This data supports the views of strategists like JAMES CARVILLE and those arguing that blindly rallying around Harris would be as big a mistake as blindly supporting Biden’s reelection was. “Nearly twice as many voters say delegates should nominate the best candidate over picking the next in line,” the memo says. This faction of the #DumpBiden movement wants an open process to replace Biden — who, by the way, still says he has no intention of stepping aside.
On Monday, we checked in with one of the leaders of the effort in Congress, who gave us this update.
“The shooting clearly helped the strategy of Biden’s team to run out the clock,” this Democratic lawmaker said. “It also stopped what would have been a number of members going public after the very unhelpful calls with members on Saturday. But it’s not over. Senior D leaders have not changed their minds that Biden needs to get out. I think a final push will come once the R convention ends on Thursday.”
Yesterday, this same person told Playbook, “Quiet efforts continue to urge the president to step aside, and team Biden remains dug in.”
