Betting Markets Have Been Up And Down As To Whether Biden Drops Out Of Race – Here Are The Current Odds

Betting markets have been on a roller-coaster ride in recent weeks over speculation that Biden might not be able to stay in the presidential race


(Fox Business) A defiant President Biden insists he will be the Democratic Party’s nominee in 2024 despite growing calls for him to bow out, and the betting markets have been on a roller-coaster ride over the odds ever since the 81-year-old’s disastrous debate against former President Trump two weeks ago.

Leading up to the debate on June 27, traders on Polymarket – the world’s largest prediction market with roughly 80% of market share globally – bet there was approximately a 1 in 4 chance of Biden dropping out. That shot up to a 43% chance the next day and surged to a 75% chance on July 3 as the news cycle showed pressure rising for the former president to pass the baton.

Biden waves from door of Air Force One
President Biden waves from Air Force One as he prepares to leave Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on July 7, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

But those odds have steadily declined ever since as Biden has repeatedly said he isn’t going anywhere. Polymarket traders determined that as of Monday afternoon, there was a 45% chance of Biden stepping aside after earlier in the day he sent a letter to congressional Democrats saying he was “firmly committed to staying in the race.”

Other sites have seen similar shifts.

“The market currently prices President Biden in the lead for becoming the Democratic nominee, with a 14c bump just today,” PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer told FOX Business in a statement Monday. “But these numbers follow days of considerable action and price shifting – including the addition of several new potential candidates.”

Joe biden and kamala harris
President Biden and Vice President Harris stand on the Truman Balcony of the White House on July 4, 2024. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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