Pollster Nate Silver’s New Model Shows Biden’t Post-Election Reelection Chances Drop To 28%

Nate Silver

(Nate Silver) This is the first Model Talk column here at Silver Bulletin. Originally our plan had been to update our presidential election forecast once a week through Labor Day (and more frequently thereafter) for paying subscribers. However, we quickly realized there were two problems: 1) we were going to want to update the forecast a lot more often than once a week; 2) it was going to be awkward to bury the numbers in some sort of newsletter post instead of having a dedicated landing page for them.

So we hope this is a case of having underpromised and overdelivered. However, part of our promise was to provide paid subscribers with exclusive written columns in addition to model updates. And that’s what this is: Model Talk is the brand name we’ll use for a weekly column (twice weekly after Labor Day) about the election as told through the lens of the model. Rest assured that there will be plenty of free columns about the election also — like this one from Wednesday — but Model Talk will often err toward the nerdier side of things.

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