(Axios) Former President Trump has already won big at the Supreme Court — even if he ultimately loses.
The big picture: The justices agreed Wednesday to decide whether Trump enjoys “total immunity” from prosecution. The timing of that decision likely means a trial over Trump’s role in Jan. 6 won’t begin — much less end — before the election.
- There’s nothing Trump wants more in this case than a delay. If he wins in November and hasn’t been tried before Inauguration Day, there’s a good chance he never will be.
- “This could well be game over,” election law expert Rick Hasen wrote.
Where it stands: Trump’s first briefs are due to the high court in about three weeks. Oral arguments will be in late April. That sets the stage for a ruling in late June, at the end of the court’s term.
- That’s about as fast as the Supreme Court is capable of moving. The justices have kept the actual trial on ice in the meantime.
Why it matters: The fundamental issue in this case — whether presidents are fully immune from prosecution over anything they did in office, even after they’ve left it — is one of the most profound questions of presidential power the court has ever had to answer.
- A lower court, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, rejected Trump’s claims of immunity, ruling that he could be prosecuted for Jan. 6.
Between the lines: The justices had options here.
- They could have declined to hear Trump’s appeal. They wouldn’t have had to tackle the question of presidential immunity, and Trump’s trial would have proceeded before the election.
- That’s what some legal experts were anticipating, based on how long it took the justices to announce whether they’d hear the case.
- Once they agreed to hear the appeal, and to decide whether presidents are beyond the reach of the criminal-justice system, keeping the trial paused makes sense.
- If you’re not sure whether someone can be prosecuted, it’s logical not to prosecute them until you’ve figured that out.
The intrigue: What’s the best-case scenario here for a court that’s already on thin ice with the public?
