(Not The Bee) Former President Donald Trump is considered in many quarters a shoo-in for the Republican nomination in 2024. That may prove to be the case, but there are at least a handful of us who think it may not be a cakewalk for the Donald. I believe at least a handful of his competitors have a shot (even if a long one) of pulling the upset and heading the Republican ticket next year.
Still, I will concede that Trump largely controls his own destiny. Consider how he wins and how he could actually lose the nomination (note that last word: I’m not talking about the general election here, only the primary against his fellow Republicans).
How Trump wins:
Some will say Trump just needs to be on the ballot and he’ll carry an incumbent’s advantage. Perhaps, but the mood of the Republican electorate will matter a great deal. If voters on the right are feeling vengeful and angry, that will almost guarantee a Trump victory. And as the international embarrassment that is been the Biden administration continues to devolve, there will be plenty of reason for voter rage.
Trump wins if his promise to be the embodiment of the right’s retribution sells. If he can manage to discipline himself into a steady diet of “they hate me because they hate you,” I think the anger and emotion that (sadly) defines our politics today carries him across the finish line.
Trump also wins if he’s able to keep his showmanship as fresh feeling as it was in 2016. I mean, this speaks for itself:
On Tuesday, Trump held an event in NH at which he just told jokes and riffed on favorite topics like he was at an open mic night. DeSantis held an event focused on his record and his policy agenda. Trump is leading DeSantis by double digits. Trump’s right, it’s about ratings. https://t.co/L0VVW03N97
— Drew Cline (@DrewHampshire) June 29, 2023
If it’s about revenge or ratings, Trump is the candidate in 2024.
How Trump loses:
Most political scientists will agree that Trump has always been his own biggest enemy. Along those very lines, I see three ways that Trump could lose, and all three are within his control.
First, as de facto leader of the Republican Party, the odds that the opposition party will successfully prosecute him and put him behind bars is slim. But if Trump keeps talking in interviews, he may end up putting himself there:
Trump: “I didn’t even see the recording.”
Also Trump: “In fact, you could hear the rustle of the paper.” https://t.co/TP1JWUrEhe
— Kathryn Watson (@kathrynw5) June 27, 2023
Bad. Not good. Neither is this:
He should not be commenting on this at all, as it makes him look worse. Has he ever made one of his legal issues better by talking about them in detail in interviews? pic.twitter.com/Gw0ts1l6OG
— David Reaboi, Late Republic Nonsense (@davereaboi) June 19, 2023
Second, he starves himself of oxygen. Trump’s showmanship (see above) is his lifeblood. No one thinks he is a policy wonk, a strategic thinker, or a paragon of presidential statesmanship. He needs to perform. So this isn’t wise:
Trump says he may skip first Republican debate, hold rival event, asking @steveholland1, “Why would I give them time to make statements? Why would I do that when I’m leading them by 50 points and 60 points.” https://t.co/JUa7hf3DRj
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) June 30, 2023
Of course I understand the theory behind it. But those theories are for traditional politicians, a group to which Donald Trump does not belong. He needs to banter and bicker. He plays into his rivals hands by taking himself off that debate stage.
