CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten told anchor Jake Tapper on Monday that Republicans could be poised for historic gains going into November’s midterm elections.
Enten laid out the data specifically with regard to the U.S. House of Representatives, in which the Democrats currently hold a slim 12-seat margin.
Data points to a November blowout, CNN’s Harry Enten say, telling Jake Tapper that the GOP is currently in “the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years.” pic.twitter.com/V3vevMlIXJ
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“If you’re a Republican running for re-election, or trying to unseat a Democrat, things are looking pretty good, right?” Tapper asked.
“I would say they’re looking very good from the historical context. Basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938, that generic ballot basically is, ‘Would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district?’” Enten explained.
“And guess what? Since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years,” he continued. “It beats 2010, when Republicans were up a point.”
“Sometimes history isn’t always prologue, but my estimate for the 2023 House makeup if the election were held today — which again, it isn’t … would be Republicans, 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats, 194 to 199,” Enten said, predicting a swing from Democrats +12 to Republicans +37-47.
“That is a stomping or that would be a stomping,” Tapper replied, and Enten agreed, “Yes, it would.”
“A lot of the Democrats’ problems, it seems, can be linked back to the president, right, who is severely underwater,” Tapper pivoted to address President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and how that could impact the midterm elections.